A few days after Pope Leo’s election, he was asked by an American news outlet whether he had any message for the United States. “Many,” he quipped, then walked away.

This week, a former student of a Catholic school returned to that school, shooting through the stained-glass windows into an all-school Mass, killing two students and, injuring more before dying by suicide in the back of the church. It is a moment that has hit close to home in a new way for American Catholics: This is the first school shooting in a Catholic school and a desecration of a Catholic church, one that was until now presumed safe, attached to a well-regarded school in an affluent neighborhood.

The results will be permanent: The families of Harper Moyski, 10, and Fletcher Merkel, 8, will not see their children again on this side of heaven. The children at the school may never feel safe in church again. Despite the principal’s insistence that the school will persevere, past school massacres indicate it will not look the same: Sandy Hook Elementary and Robb Elementary in Uvalde have both been demolished and their students moved to new schools.

In the midst of these losses—of life, of innocence and likely of a church, if not a school—some are looking to Pope Leo XIV, the first U.S.-born pope, for leadership in response to the overwhelmingly American problem of school shootings.

On Wednesday, hours after the shooting, Pope Leo sent a message of condolence via his secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, to Archbishop Bernard Hebda of Minneapolis-St. Paul, saying he was “profoundly saddened to learn of the loss of life and injuries” and expressing his “heartfelt condolences” and “spiritual closeness to all those affected by this terrible tragedy, especially the families now grieving the loss of a child.”

“While commending the souls of the deceased children to the love of Almighty God, His Holiness prays for the wounded as well as the first responders, medical personnel and clergy who are caring for them and their loved ones,” the telegram read. It concluded with the pope extending a blessing to the school community, the archdiocese and the people of the Twin Cities “as a pledge of peace, fortitude and consolation in the Lord Jesus.”

After any school shooting, there is an immediate and predictable debate over whether “thoughts and prayers” statements are enough. Anticipating this, the mayor of Minneapolis, Jacob Frey, said after the shooting: “Don’t just say this is about thoughts and prayers right now. These kids were literally praying.” Likewise, the Annunciation principal, Matthew DuBois, invoked an African proverb saying, “When you pray, move your feet,” adding: “So I beg you, I ask you, please pray. But don’t stop with your words.”

The question remains whether the new American pope will speak any more on the shooting or urge any action now that he has assured the community of his prayers.

After the Uvalde shooting left 19 students and two adults dead, Pope Francis sent a telegram of condolence to the local bishop, very similar to the one Pope Leo sent Archbishop Hebda and those that Francis sent following other mass shootings. He also spoke about it publicly at his Wednesday general audience the day after the shooting, calling for an end “to the indiscriminate trafficking of arms.”

If Pope Leo intends to comment again on the shooting, it is likely he will follow Pope Francis’ model and wait until his next public address, which will be the Sunday Angelus, delivered at midday. Popes often use the Angelus to speak about world issues.

As for what he might say, Pope Leo’s former X account—never officially confirmed as his but associated with an email address known to be his—could provide a clue: Following the 2017 Las Vegas mass shooting, then-Bishop Robert Prevost retweeted a post from Senator Chris Murphy that said: “To my colleagues: your cowardice to act cannot be whitewashed by thoughts and prayers. None of this ends unless we do something to stop it.”

It is unlikely Pope Leo would specify what that “something” should look like in terms of specific policy proposals. It is uncertain if he would even call for changes to policy at all; given that the weapons used by the Minneapolis shooter were procured legally, any invocation of policy changes would imply strengthening legal restrictions on weapons. It is unclear if Leo would be willing to take a stand on such a divisive political issue, given his reticence to exacerbate existing divisions. What seems more likely, based on the pope’s past messages, is that he will call for the conversion of hearts and minds away from violence, which, while necessary, will likely be interpreted by those wishing for a more political message as being too spiritual.

Yet Leo’s past retweet indicates that he does not think “thoughts and prayers” are enough, and that he, at least sometime in the past, wanted to see some action taken to prevent school shootings. Is there a way for him to make that call without deepening political divisions in the United States, where he currently enjoys across-the-aisle support? The coming days—or a future encyclical—may tell.