Who comes after Francis? Although the current pope is still forging ahead with an ambitious itinerary of liturgies, meetings and even foreign travel, it is undoubtedly the final stage of his pontificate
By Robert Mickens |
Vatican City
Pope Francis has not slackened his pace, despite recently being forced to use a wheelchair because of a problem with one of his knees. And the 85-year-old pope may be overweight and less mobile than when he was elected Bishop of Rome in March 2013, but his mind appears to be nimble as ever. Nonetheless, age and physical disabilities are beginning to take their toll. At the end of October he will surpass Benedict XVI as the oldest pope in office since 1903 when Leo XIII died nearly five months beyond the age of 93.No matter how long Francis' pontificate stretches on, there is no denying that it is in its final stage. And that means people are beginning to talk about likely candidates to succeed the first Jesuit and New World pope in the Church's history. But the situation is extremely hard to gauge because the cardinals who will elect the successor (and who are also potential candidates themselves) are not that well known -- not even to one another. The group of men the Jesuit pope has put in the College of Cardinals is wildly diverse. Most of them are not household names and a number of them are from outlying areas with small Catholic populations. A good chunk of these men have little international ecclesial experience.
What the numbers tell us... and what they don't
There are currently 117 cardinals under the age of 80 who are eligible to vote in a conclave. (That does not include Angelo Becciu, 73, whom Francis stripped of his voting rights.) As of June 6, the number of electors drops to 116.Francis gave the red hat to 67 of these men. Benedict chose 38 of them and John Paul II the remaining 12, including the one (Cardinal Norberto Rivera Carrera of Mexico) who ages out next month. The fact that the current pope has created nearly 58% of those who will choose his successor is only relatively important, partly due to the fact that these cardinals are not easy to categorize. And there's no telling how they would vote, if they were to be suddenly locked inside the Sistine Chapel. The 117 electors have not held a single meeting as an entire group. Francis is in the 10th year of his pontificate and has held seven consistories to induct new members into the College of Cardinals. But for the exception of that very first consistory in February 2014, he has never gathered the entire college together for a corporate meeting. The "retirees" as influencers It is important to note that there are also 92 non-electors. These men can play an extremely influential role in the several days of meetings that they and the electors will hold immediately before the Conclave begins. And here the number of non-voting cardinals created by John Paul (41) and Benedict (26) outflank those Francis named (25) by nearly three-to-one. And there are some big and persuasive personalities in their ranks. If all 209 members of the College of Cardinals -- both electors and non-electors -- attend the pre-Conclave sessions, only 92 of them will have gotten their red hat from Pope Francis. The other 117 will have been named cardinals by John Paul (53) and Benedict (64).Because the college has not met as an entire corporate body since 2014, it's also hard to detect a clear group dynamic or ethos that unites them other than the color red they all wear. When the electors are finally called to fulfill the only duty that currently distinguishes them from every other baptized Catholic, i.e. choose the next Bishop of Rome, what type of man will they look for? The "Francis Agenda" candidates There are a good number of cardinals who enthusiastically support the ambitious -- and, at times, disruptive -- program of Church reform that Francis has been trying to implement during his pontificate. The Argentine pope enjoys the unflinching loyalty of some key players in red who wholeheartedly embrace the blueprint for the revitalized missionary Church that's mapped out in Evangelii Gaudium, his most important document. And there are heavyweights in the College of Cardinals who are driving the agenda he's set in the encyclicals Laudato si' and Fratelli tutti. But can any of these men garner enough votes to be elected the next Roman Pontiff? It boils down to whether the electors want to forward the "Francis Agenda". The ongoing reform of the Synod of Bishops and the attempt to make "synodality" a constitutive part of ecclesial life and governance at all levels is central to this. And that means that Cardinal Mario Grech, the Synod's energetic secretary general, would be among the top candidates in this category. But his 65 years of age and excellent health may scare off those who don't want to return to a lengthy pontificate similar to John Paul Ii's. Others in this group who might have a chance of drawing enough votes include Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 66, of Bologna. Again, a youngish candidate, but with good links to Africa (especially) and other places where the Rome-based Sant' Egidio Community in which he grew up is very active. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's 67-year-old Secretary of State, has been mentioned throughout the pontificate as someone who could continue the main thrust of Francis' reforms (especially an openness to dialogue with the world) while restoring some of the institutional discipline and order the current pope has set aside. The northern Italian is a life-long papal diplomat and, although he has a very pastoral manner, he's never been the pastor of a parish or a diocesan bishop. This could be seen as a major deficit in his skillset. The other so-called "Francis bishops" among the cardinals are probably not electable for various reasons. The "Change the Course" candidates If Francis can count on a number of enthusiastic supporters among the cardinals, he must also contend with those who are extremely worried about the direction in which he's been moving the Church. Some of them openly boo him, while most just applaud politely or keep silent. All together they make up the "Change the Course" crowd. Again, the question is who among them can present himself as sufficiently mainstream to get elected pope. One of the men in this group who has a reasonable chance to get votes is Cardinal Peter Erdő of Esztergom-Budapest. At 70, which he will turn next month, the Hungarian canon lawyer is the ideal age. Although he's pedantic and doctrinally rigid, he's meticulously organized and well-connected. He's a two-term president of the Council of Episcopal Conferences of Europe (CCEE) and is fluent in the Vatican's lingua franca, Italian. Perceptions that he's too cozy with Hungary's kleptocratic nationalist government will likely hurt his chances. Cardinal Malcom Ranjith of Sri Lanka, 74, is a "conservative" from the Benedict XVI stable who could be put forward by those who want to change course. He's had vast experience in all levels of the Church, including serving in two posts at the Vatican and one as a papal nuncio. He seems to have toned down his enthusiasm for the Old Latin Mass and has emerged as one of the Church's most outspoken critics of religious persecution (against Christians, of course).The "Change the Course" crowd includes people like Cardinals Raymond Burke and Gerhard Müller, who, for various reasons, are not "papabile". One is tempted to place Cardinal Robert Sarah among them. That would be a mistake. The Guinean, who turns 77 next month, is admired by many of his fellow cardinals -- especially his fellow Africans -- for his kindly manner and perceived holiness. Those who believe someone so conservative could never get elected need only remember the Conclave of 2005.
Compromise candidates
It is very likely that the successor of Pope Francis will be the result of compromise. That doesn't necessarily mean that he will be a moderate or a middle of the road candidate. It just means he can get enough votes from enough of the various factions within the electoral college. Cardinal Marc Ouellet, the French-Canadian who has headed the Congregation of Bishops the past 12 years, is someone the "Change the Course" crowd would be comfortable floating as their compromise candidate. A dyed-in-the-wool disciple of Benedict XVI-Joseph Ratzinger, he pivoted effortlessly to appear supportive of Francis. But his classic theological and pastoral intuitions have not changed. Ouellet is another papal candidate with a June birthday. The next one will be his 77th, a good age for a transitional pope. Cardinals Peter Turkson and Charles Bo should also get some looks. Turkson, 73, has gotten valuable experience and a few battle scars from serving as head of major offices in the last two pontificates. The Ghanaian scripture scholar and former diocesan bishop is a strong advocate of Catholic social teaching, while offering some pretty traditional views on sexual ethics. His appeal may consist in not being a stereotypical Francis bishop or a Benedict bishop. Bo, who is also 73, has been archbishop of Yangon (Myanmar) since 2003. He has also been one of the Catholic Church's most forceful and credible voices in denouncing religious discrimination, persecution and injustice in general. Cardinal Bo is member of the Salesians of Don Bosco. But he never studied in Italy, as is common for most men who belong to this religious order. It is often said that Cardinal Luis Tagle, the former archbishop of Manila who heads Propaganda Fide, is the leading Asian candidate for the papacy. It's possible that the soon-to-be 65-year-old Filipino will have some backing, but Bo's pastoral courage will certainly get a lot of attention. A sleeper candidate? Of course, there's always the possibility of a sleeper or wild-card candidate among this current group of cardinal-electors. It is usually assumed that the Bishop of Rome should be of the Latin Rite (Western Church). But there are cardinals from the Eastern Churches and there is no rule or canon that prohibits them being elected. Cardinal Louis Sako, the Chaldean Patriarch of Baghdad, is perhaps the most compelling figure in this group. A bishop in his native, war-torn Iraq since 2002, he will be 74 in July. It has not happened in nearly 650 years, but there is nothing to stop the cardinals from choosing someone from outside their ranks. Don't bet on it, but it would be good to cast the net a bit wider in order to find the best possible candidate. As it is, the popes are the ones who ultimately decide who has the right stuff to sit on the Chair of Peter. Each time a Roman Pontiff creates new cardinals, he is also naming the candidates to be his successor. Pope Francis is expected to hold his next consistory in November, though some want him to do it much earlier in order to top up the college to its now-conventional number of 120 electors or even go beyond that figure. As they are fond of saying in Rome, perhaps the next pope is not yet a cardinal.
Follow me on Twitter @robinrome
No comments:
Post a Comment