Published on Commonweal magazine (http://commonwealmagazine.org)
More War?
Created 03/12/2012 - 12:45pm
The Editors
The United States has been at war for more
than a decade. Thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of
Iraqis, Afghans, and others have been killed. Tens of thousands of
soldiers and civilians have been maimed or crippled. Trillions of
dollars have been spent on these wars, and billions more on rebuilding
Iraqi and Afghan society and trying to establish some form of democratic
government. Beyond the destruction of Al Qaeda, the United States has
little to show for the sacrifices made and money spent. The effort to
bend our adversaries to our will first through military force has not
worked.
Given the history of the past decade, it’s
astonishing that calls for U.S. military intervention in the Middle East
are mounting once again. The slaughter of civilians by the Assad regime
in Syria is appalling, and the world’s outraged response entirely
justified. Yet demands for military intervention are premature and
imprudent. Similarly, demands now being made by the Israeli government,
and by all too many in Congress, that the United States issue an
ultimatum to Iran to halt its nuclear program or face a preemptive
strike are rash and irresponsible.
No one disputes the brutality of the Syrian
regime. Remarkably, there is unanimity among Arab governments that Assad
must go. Action by the UN was cynically vetoed, however, by Russia and
China. Russia has long provided military aid and equipment to Syria, and
both Russia and China fear international efforts to protect citizens
from the depredations of their own governments. A Security Council
condemnation would have been useful, but military intervention was never
an option. The Syrian army is one of the most powerful in the region
and its elite units and officer corps, drawn predominantly from the same
Alawite minority as the Assad family, are deeply loyal to the regime.
In all likelihood, intervention would precipitate an even bloodier civil
war, one that could easily spread to Syria’s neighbors, who are beset
by similar ethnic and sectarian divisions. To neutralize Syria’s Sunni
majority, the Assads have carefully cultivated the loyalty not only of
their fellow Alawites, but also of Christians and the Sunni business
elite. Fearing reprisal killings and future persecution, all these
groups will resist a Sunni—and possibly Islamist—takeover. Further
complicating the picture, the rebels are divided and poorly led. At the
moment, the best hope for stemming the bloodshed and increasing the
likelihood of regime change is to tighten the economic and diplomatic
sanctions now in place. That will take time. Before Assad’s supporters
will abandon him, they will have to be convinced that any transitional
government will protect minority communities and interests, and that
Alawites, Christians, and others will have a share of power in the new
government.
Of course, there are no guarantees that
diplomatic and economic sanctions will work against either Syria or
Iran, but war must remain a last resort. Israel’s Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu is currently in the United States to press for a
preemptive military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Netanyahu
has made no secret of his view that the economic and political sanctions
the Obama administration and the international community have brought
to bear on Iran will not induce it to give up developing a nuclear
weapon. Israel is now threatening to bomb Iran, unless it gets a
guarantee that the United States will do the bombing with its more
potent weapons at a later date. Netanyahu is even insisting there can be
no negotiations with Iran unless it ceases nuclear development
altogether, something no one thinks the ayatollahs will do, and a
position the United States rightly rejects.
President Barack Obama should press forward with sanctions and
negotiations. If the Iranians agree to limit nuclear development to
peaceful purposes and accept a stringent inspection regime that ensures
no nuclear material is being diverted to weapons manufacture, Israel and
the region will benefit enormously. A preemptive attack will only delay
Iran in acquiring nuclear weapons while strengthening the regime’s
resolve to do so. It will also unite what is now a deeply alienated
population behind a domestically discredited Iranian leadership. One
need not be naïve about the threat Iran poses to think that sanctions
and careful diplomacy may yet bring the Islamic republic to the
negotiating table. Over the past decade, exaggerated fears about the
intentions and capacities of our enemies have been all too easily
manipulated. Mastering fear, not surrendering to or exploiting it,
should be the first response of a democratic government.
March 6, 2012
Source URL: http://commonwealmagazine.org/more-war
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